Will AI replace Bridge and Lock Tenders?
Most of the work in Bridge and Lock Tenders still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~29%, and real-world use lower still.
O*NET-SOC 53-6011
How your 10 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~29%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
Don't trust a single AI-risk score here
For this job, the signals disagree sharply. AI's theoretical reach looks relatively low (~29%), but real-world use is only ~0%, and how much AI "can" do shifts wildly by model — one 2026 study found the share of "high-risk" jobs swung 2.7% to 51.5% just by changing which AI did the rating. This page shows the spread instead of pretending there's one number.
See all 10 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Record names, types, and destinations of vessels passing through bridge openings or locks, and numbers of trains or vehicles crossing bridges.
- Write and submit maintenance work requisitions.
- Log data, such as water levels and weather conditions.
- Prepare accident reports.
- No tasks in this middle tier.
- Control machinery to open and close canal locks and dams, railroad or highway drawbridges, or horizontally or vertically adjustable bridges.
- Direct movements of vessels in locks or bridge areas, using signals, telecommunication equipment, or loudspeakers.
- Observe position and progress of vessels to ensure best use of lock spaces or bridge opening spaces.
- Observe approaching vessels to determine size and speed, and listen for whistle signals indicating desire to pass.
- Move levers to activate traffic signals, navigation lights, and alarms.
- Perform maintenance duties, such as sweeping, painting, and yard work to keep facilities clean and in order.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.