Will AI replace Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels?
Most of the work in Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~26%, and real-world use lower still.
O*NET-SOC 53-5021
How your 25 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~26%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~26%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 25 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Operate ship-to-shore radios to exchange information needed for ship operations.
- Report to appropriate authorities any violations of federal or state pilotage laws.
- Maintain records of daily activities, personnel reports, ship positions and movements, ports of call, weather and sea conditions, pollution control efforts, or cargo or passenger status.
- Advise ships' masters on harbor rules and customs procedures.
- Learn to operate new technology systems and procedures through instruction, simulators, or models.
- Consult maps, charts, weather reports, or navigation equipment to determine and direct ship movements.
- Calculate sightings of land, using electronic sounding devices and following contour lines on charts.
- Purchase supplies or equipment.
- Direct courses and speeds of ships, based on specialized knowledge of local winds, weather, water depths, tides, currents, and hazards.
- Prevent ships under navigational control from engaging in unsafe operations.
- Serve as a vessel's docking master upon arrival at a port or at a berth.
- Steer and operate vessels, using radios, depth finders, radars, lights, buoys, or lighthouses.
- Dock or undock vessels, sometimes maneuvering through narrow spaces, such as locks.
- Stand watches on vessels during specified periods while vessels are under way.
- Inspect vessels to ensure efficient and safe operation of vessels and equipment and conformance to regulations.
- Read gauges to verify sufficient levels of hydraulic fluid, air pressure, or oxygen.
- Provide assistance in maritime rescue operations.
- Signal passing vessels, using whistles, flashing lights, flags, or radios.
- Measure depths of water, using depth-measuring equipment.
- Signal crew members or deckhands to rig tow lines, open or close gates or ramps, or pull guard chains across entries.
- Maintain boats or equipment on board, such as engines, winches, navigational systems, fire extinguishers, or life preservers.
- Observe loading or unloading of cargo or equipment to ensure that handling and storage are performed according to specifications.
- Direct or coordinate crew members or workers performing activities such as loading or unloading cargo, steering vessels, operating engines, or operating, maintaining, or repairing ship equipment.
- Arrange for ships to be fueled, restocked with supplies, or repaired.
- Supervise crews in cleaning or maintaining decks, superstructures, or bridges.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.