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Will AI replace Career/Technical Education Teachers, Secondary School?

Most of the work in Career/Technical Education Teachers, Secondary School still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~33%, and real-world use lower still.

The Human Moat Work that's hard for AI to cross — for now.

O*NET-SOC 25-2032

How your 33 core tasks split

52% within AI's reach
5 AI can do this now
12 AI speeds this up
16 Still on you
AI could do · GPT-4 study
33%
33-pt gap
AI actually does · 2026 report
0%

Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.

⚡ The short answer

Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~33%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.

Where this job sits among 738 jobs

Being automatedTicking (can, but unused)Relatively safeQuietly happeningYOU0%50%100%0%40%75% → How much AI could do (theory) → How much AI is actually used (late 2025)

Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.

Stableconfidence

The signals here line up

Theoretical reach (~33%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.

See all 33 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
AI can already do this5 of 33
  • Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.
  • Establish clear objectives for all lessons, units, and projects, and communicate those objectives to students.
  • Maintain accurate and complete student records as required by law, district policy, and administrative regulations.
  • Attend professional meetings, educational conferences, and teacher training workshops to maintain and improve professional competence.
  • Prepare reports on students and activities as required by administration.
AI speeds this up12 of 33
  • Plan and conduct activities for a balanced program of instruction, demonstration, and work time that provides students with opportunities to observe, question, and investigate.
  • Assign and grade class work and homework.
  • Instruct students in the knowledge and skills required in a specific occupation or occupational field, using a systematic plan of lectures, discussions, audio-visual presentations, and laboratory, shop, and field studies.
  • Use computers, audio-visual aids, and other equipment and materials to supplement presentations.
  • Prepare, administer, and grade tests and assignments to evaluate students' progress.
  • Prepare students for later grades by encouraging them to explore learning opportunities and to persevere with challenging tasks.
  • Place students in jobs, or make referrals to job placement services.
  • Prepare and implement remedial programs for students requiring extra help.
  • Confer with other staff members to plan and schedule lessons promoting learning, following approved curricula.
  • Collaborate with other teachers and administrators in the development, evaluation, and revision of secondary school programs.
  • Select, order, store, issue, and inventory classroom equipment, materials, and supplies.
  • Keep informed about trends in education and subject matter specialties.
Still on you16 of 33
  • Instruct students individually and in groups, using various teaching methods, such as lectures, discussions, and demonstrations.
  • Establish and enforce rules for behavior and procedures for maintaining order among students.
  • Observe and evaluate students' performance, behavior, social development, and physical health.
  • Instruct and monitor students in the use and care of equipment and materials to prevent injury and damage.
  • Prepare materials and classroom for class activities.
  • Confer with parents or guardians, other teachers, counselors, and administrators to resolve students' behavioral and academic problems.
  • Enforce all administration policies and rules governing students.
  • Plan and supervise work-experience programs in businesses, industrial shops, and school laboratories.
  • Meet with other professionals to discuss individual students' needs and progress.
  • Guide and counsel students with adjustments, academic problems, or special academic interests.
  • Provide disabled students with assistive devices, supportive technology, and assistance accessing facilities, such as restrooms.
  • Plan and supervise class projects, field trips, visits by guest speakers or other experiential activities, and guide students in learning from those activities.
  • Sponsor extracurricular activities, such as clubs, student organizations, and academic contests.
  • Meet with parents and guardians to discuss their children's progress and to determine priorities for their children and their resource needs.
  • Attend staff meetings and serve on committees, as required.
  • Perform administrative duties, such as school library assistance, hall and cafeteria monitoring, and bus loading and unloading.

My job is a Human Moat 😌

Turns out being human is still the hard part to copy.

Theoretical estimate · not a prediction · gistgarden.com

How we measured this — and how fresh it is

AI's theoretical reach data: 2023

From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.

Real-world AI use 2026 report

From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).

Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3

Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.

Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.

This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.