Will AI replace Commercial Divers?
Most of the work in Commercial Divers still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~7%, and real-world use lower still.
O*NET-SOC 49-9092
How your 20 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~7%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~7%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 20 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- None — AI cannot fully do any core task alone yet.
- Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment.
- Operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life.
- Take test samples or photographs to assess the condition of vessels or structures.
- Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin.
- Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges.
- Communicate with workers on the surface while underwater, using signal lines or telephones.
- Descend into water with the aid of diver helpers, using scuba gear or diving suits.
- Obtain information about diving tasks and environmental conditions.
- Supervise or train other divers, including hobby divers.
- Inspect the condition of underwater steel or wood structures.
- Repair ships, bridge foundations, or other structures below the water line, using caulk, bolts, and hand tools.
- Recover objects by placing rigging around sunken objects, hooking rigging to crane lines, and operating winches, derricks, or cranes to raise objects.
- Cut and weld steel, using underwater welding equipment, jigs, and supports.
- Install, inspect, clean, or repair piping or valves.
- Carry out non-destructive testing, such as tests for cracks on the legs of oil rigs at sea.
- Install pilings or footings for piers or bridges.
- Salvage wrecked ships or their cargo, using pneumatic power velocity and hydraulic tools and explosive charges, when necessary.
- Remove obstructions from strainers or marine railway or launching ways, using pneumatic or power hand tools.
- Set or guide placement of pilings or sandbags to provide support for structures, such as docks, bridges, cofferdams, or platforms.
- Perform activities related to underwater search and rescue, salvage, recovery, or cleanup operations.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.