Will AI replace Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas?
Most of the work in Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~14%, and real-world use lower still.
O*NET-SOC 47-5023
How your 14 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~14%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~14%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 14 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Document geological formations encountered during work.
- Record drilling progress and geological data.
- No tasks in this middle tier.
- Operate controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills.
- Start, stop, and control drilling speed of machines and insertion of casings into holes.
- Regulate air pressure, rotary speed, and downward pressure, according to the type of rock or concrete being drilled.
- Select and attach drill bits and drill rods, adding more rods as hole depths increase, and changing drill bits as needed.
- Drive or guide truck-mounted equipment into position, level and stabilize rigs, and extend telescoping derricks.
- Operate machines to flush earth cuttings or to blow dust from holes.
- Verify depths and alignments of boring positions.
- Perform routine maintenance and upgrade work on machines and equipment, such as replacing parts, building up drill bits, and lubricating machinery.
- Select the appropriate drill for the job, using knowledge of rock or soil conditions.
- Drive trucks, tractors, or truck-mounted drills to and from work sites.
- Assemble and position machines, augers, casing pipes, and other equipment, using hand and power tools.
- Retrieve lost equipment from bore holes, using retrieval tools and equipment.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.