Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers?
Work in First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers sits in the in-between: AI reaches some of it (~40% in theory) but is only measured doing about 3% today — part human, part machine.
O*NET-SOC 47-1011
How your 30 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a moderate share of this job's tasks (~40%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 3% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~40%), real-world use (~3%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 30 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Record information, such as personnel, production, or operational data on specified forms or reports.
- Inspect work progress, equipment, or construction sites to verify safety or to ensure that specifications are met.
- Read specifications, such as blueprints, to determine construction requirements or to plan procedures.
- Supervise, coordinate, or schedule the activities of construction or extractive workers.
- Assign work to employees, based on material or worker requirements of specific jobs.
- Coordinate work activities with other construction project activities.
- Estimate material or worker requirements to complete jobs.
- Analyze worker or production problems and recommend solutions, such as improving production methods or implementing motivational plans.
- Order or requisition materials or supplies.
- Locate, measure, and mark site locations or placement of structures or equipment, using measuring and marking equipment.
- Suggest or initiate personnel actions, such as promotions, transfers, or hires.
- Estimate materials, equipment, and personnel needed for residential or commercial solar installation projects.
- Prepare solar installation project proposals, quotes, budgets, or schedules.
- Plan and coordinate installations of photovoltaic (PV) solar and solar thermal systems to ensure conformance to codes.
- Monitor work of contractors and subcontractors to ensure projects conform to plans, specifications, schedules, or budgets.
- Assess potential solar installation sites to determine feasibility and design requirements.
- Provide technical assistance to installers, technicians, or other solar professionals in areas such as solar electric systems, solar thermal systems, electrical systems, or mechanical systems.
- Identify means to reduce costs, minimize risks, or increase efficiency of solar installation projects.
- Coordinate or schedule building inspections for solar installation projects.
- Assess system performance or functionality at the system, subsystem, and component levels.
- Evaluate subcontractors or subcontractor bids for quality, cost, and reliability.
- Visit customer sites to determine solar system needs, requirements, or specifications.
- Develop and maintain system architecture, including all piping, instrumentation, or process flow diagrams.
- Purchase or rent equipment for solar energy system installation.
- Train workers in construction methods, operation of equipment, safety procedures, or company policies.
- Confer with managerial or technical personnel, other departments, or contractors to resolve problems or to coordinate activities.
- Arrange for repairs of equipment or machinery.
- Provide assistance to workers engaged in construction or extraction activities, using hand tools or other equipment.
- Supervise solar installers, technicians, and subcontractors for solar installation projects to ensure compliance with safety standards.
- Perform start-up of systems for testing or customer implementation.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.