Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers?
Most of the work in First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~28%, and real-world use lower still.
O*NET-SOC 33-1011
How your 23 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~28%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 3% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~28%), real-world use (~3%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 23 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Maintain knowledge of, comply with, and enforce all institutional policies, rules, procedures, and regulations.
- Complete administrative paperwork or supervise the preparation or maintenance of records, forms, or reports.
- Set up employee work schedules.
- Convey correctional officers' or inmates' complaints to superiors.
- Conduct evaluations of employees' performance.
- Examine incoming or outgoing mail to ensure conformance with regulations.
- Review offender information to identify issues that require special attention.
- Develop work or security procedures.
- Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts.
- Maintain order, discipline, and security within assigned areas in accordance with relevant rules, regulations, policies, and laws.
- Respond to emergencies, such as escapes.
- Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers to ensure the safe custody, discipline, and welfare of inmates.
- Supervise or perform searches of inmates or their quarters to locate contraband items.
- Monitor behavior of subordinates to ensure alert, courteous, and professional behavior toward inmates, parolees, fellow employees, visitors, and the public.
- Restrain, secure, or control offenders, using chemical agents, firearms, or other weapons of force as necessary.
- Carry injured offenders or employees to safety and provide emergency first aid when necessary.
- Supervise activities, such as searches, shakedowns, riot control, or institutional tours.
- Conduct roll calls of correctional officers.
- Instruct employees or provide on-the-job training.
- Resolve problems between inmates.
- Transfer or transport offenders on foot or by driving vehicles, such as trailers, vans, or buses.
- Supervise or provide security for offenders performing tasks, such as construction, maintenance, laundry, food service, or other industrial or agricultural operations.
- Rate behavior of inmates, promoting acceptable attitudes and behaviors to those with low ratings.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.