Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers?
Most of the work in First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~28%, and real-world use lower still.
O*NET-SOC 45-1011
How your 27 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~28%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~28%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 27 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Record the numbers and types of fish or shellfish reared, harvested, released, sold, and shipped.
- Communicate with forestry personnel regarding forest harvesting or forest management plans, procedures, or schedules.
- Read inventory records, customer orders, or shipping schedules to determine required activities.
- Prepare and maintain time or payroll reports, as well as details of personnel actions, such as performance evaluations, hires, promotions, or disciplinary actions.
- Observe fish and beds or ponds to detect diseases, monitor fish growth, determine quality of fish, or determine completeness of harvesting.
- Inspect crops, fields, or plant stock to determine conditions and need for cultivating, spraying, weeding, or harvesting.
- Schedule work crews, equipment, or transportation for several different work locations.
- Perform both supervisory and management functions, such as accounting, marketing, and personnel work.
- Confer with managers to determine production requirements, conditions of equipment and supplies, and work schedules.
- Requisition or purchase supplies, such as insecticides, machine parts or lubricants, or tools.
- Calculate or monitor budgets for maintenance or development of collections, grounds, or infrastructure.
- Assign tasks such as feeding and treatment of animals, and cleaning and maintenance of animal quarters.
- Monitor workers to ensure that safety regulations are followed, warning or disciplining those who violate safety regulations.
- Observe animals for signs of illness, injury, or unusual behavior, notifying veterinarians or managers as warranted.
- Train workers in tree felling or bucking, operation of tractors or loading machines, yarding or loading techniques, or safety regulations.
- Treat animal illnesses or injuries, following experience or instructions of veterinarians.
- Train workers in spawning, rearing, cultivating, and harvesting methods, and in the use of equipment.
- Train workers in techniques such as planting, harvesting, weeding, or insect identification and in the use of safety measures.
- Confer with managers to evaluate weather or soil conditions, to develop plans or procedures, or to discuss issues such as changes in fertilizers, herbicides, or cultivating techniques.
- Coordinate dismantling, moving, and setting up equipment at new work sites.
- Coordinate the selection and movement of logs from storage areas, according to transportation schedules or production requirements.
- Drive or operate farm machinery, such as trucks, tractors, or self-propelled harvesters, to transport workers or supplies or to cultivate or harvest fields.
- Transport or arrange for transport of animals, equipment, food, animal feed, and other supplies to and from work sites.
- Inspect buildings, fences, fields or ranges, supplies, and equipment to determine work to be performed.
- Inspect facilities to determine maintenance needs.
- Monitor or oversee construction projects, such as horticultural buildings or irrigation systems.
- Issue equipment, such as farm implements, machinery, ladders, or containers to workers, and collect equipment when work is complete.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.