Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers?
Work in First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers sits in the in-between: AI reaches some of it (~42% in theory) but is only measured doing about 0% today — part human, part machine.
O*NET-SOC 33-1021
How your 23 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a moderate share of this job's tasks (~42%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~42%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 23 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Communicate fire details to superiors, subordinates, or interagency dispatch centers, using two-way radios.
- Perform maintenance and minor repairs on firefighting equipment, including vehicles, and write and submit proposals to modify, replace, and repair equipment.
- Maintain required maps and records.
- Recommend personnel actions related to disciplinary procedures, performance, leaves of absence, and grievances.
- Perform administrative duties, such as compiling and maintaining records, completing forms, preparing reports, or composing correspondence.
- Assess nature and extent of fire, condition of building, danger to adjacent buildings, and water supply status to determine crew or company requirements.
- Direct the training of firefighters, assigning of instructors to training classes, and providing of supervisors with reports on training progress and status.
- Schedule employee work assignments and set work priorities.
- Monitor fire suppression expenditures to ensure that they are necessary and reasonable.
- Participate in creating fire safety guidelines and evacuation schemes for nonresidential buildings.
- Direct investigation of cases of suspected arson, hazards, and false alarms and submit reports outlining findings.
- Recommend equipment modifications or new equipment purchases.
- Supervise and participate in the inspection of properties to ensure that they are in compliance with applicable fire codes, ordinances, laws, regulations, and standards.
- Assign firefighters to jobs at strategic locations to facilitate rescue of persons and maximize application of extinguishing agents.
- Provide emergency medical services as required, and perform light to heavy rescue functions at emergencies.
- Serve as a working leader of an engine, hand, helicopter, or prescribed fire crew of three or more firefighters.
- Instruct and drill fire department personnel in assigned duties, including firefighting, medical care, hazardous materials response, fire prevention, and related subjects.
- Maintain fire suppression equipment in good condition, checking equipment periodically to ensure that it is ready for use.
- Evaluate the performance of assigned firefighting personnel.
- Drive crew carriers to transport firefighters to fire sites.
- Inspect stations, uniforms, equipment, or recreation areas to ensure compliance with safety standards, taking corrective action as necessary.
- Evaluate fire station procedures to ensure efficiency and enforcement of departmental regulations.
- Direct firefighters in station maintenance duties, and participate in these duties.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.