Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers?
Work in First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers sits in the in-between: AI reaches some of it (~35% in theory) but is only measured doing about 11% today — part human, part machine.
O*NET-SOC 37-1012
How your 27 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a moderate share of this job's tasks (~35%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 11% of its task activity (growing but still limited). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~35%), real-world use (~11%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 27 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Maintain required records, such as personnel information or project records.
- Prepare or maintain required records, such as work activity or personnel reports.
- Perform administrative duties, such as authorizing leaves or processing time sheets.
- Review contracts or work assignments to determine service, machine, or workforce requirements for jobs.
- Schedule work for crews, depending on work priorities, crew or equipment availability, or weather conditions.
- Monitor project activities to ensure that instructions are followed, deadlines are met, and schedules are maintained.
- Prepare service estimates based on labor, material, and machine costs and maintain budgets for individual projects.
- Identify diseases or pests affecting landscaping and order appropriate treatments.
- Perform personnel-related activities, such as hiring workers, evaluating staff performance, or taking disciplinary actions when performance problems occur.
- Investigate work-related complaints to verify problems and to determine responses.
- Order the performance of corrective work when problems occur and recommend procedural changes to avoid such problems.
- Confer with managers or landscape architects to develop plans or schedules for landscaping maintenance or improvement.
- Recommend changes in working conditions or equipment used to increase crew efficiency.
- Answer inquiries from current or prospective customers regarding methods, materials, or price ranges.
- Design or supervise the installation of sprinkler systems, calculating water pressure, or valve and pipe coverage needs.
- Establish and enforce operating procedures and work standards that will ensure adequate performance and personnel safety.
- Tour grounds, such as parks, botanical gardens, cemeteries, or golf courses, to inspect conditions of plants and soil.
- Direct activities of workers who perform duties, such as landscaping, cultivating lawns, or pruning trees and shrubs.
- Inspect completed work to ensure conformance to specifications, standards, and contract requirements.
- Plant or maintain vegetation through activities such as mulching, fertilizing, watering, mowing, or pruning.
- Direct or perform mixing or application of fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides, or fungicides.
- Train workers in tasks such as transplanting or pruning trees or shrubs, finishing cement, using equipment, or caring for turf.
- Inventory supplies of tools, equipment, or materials to ensure that sufficient supplies are available and items are in usable condition.
- Provide workers with assistance in performing duties as necessary to meet deadlines.
- Confer with other supervisors to coordinate work activities with those of other departments or units.
- Direct or assist workers engaged in the maintenance or repair of equipment, such as power tools or motorized equipment.
- Install or maintain landscaped areas, performing tasks such as removing snow, pouring cement curbs, or repairing sidewalks.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.