Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives?
Most of the work in First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~33%, and real-world use lower still.
O*NET-SOC 33-1012
How your 18 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~33%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~33%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 18 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Review contents of written orders to ensure adherence to legal requirements.
- Prepare news releases and respond to police correspondence.
- Supervise and coordinate the investigation of criminal cases, offering guidance and expertise to investigators, and ensuring that procedures are conducted in accordance with laws and regulations.
- Investigate and resolve personnel problems within organization and charges of misconduct against staff.
- Inform personnel of changes in regulations and policies, implications of new or amended laws, and new techniques of police work.
- Maintain logs, prepare reports, and direct the preparation, handling, and maintenance of departmental records.
- Monitor and evaluate the job performance of subordinates, and authorize promotions and transfers.
- Prepare work schedules and assign duties to subordinates.
- Develop, implement, and revise departmental policies and procedures.
- Requisition and issue equipment and supplies.
- Explain police operations to subordinates to assist them in performing their job duties.
- Train staff in proper police work procedures.
- Cooperate with court personnel and officials from other law enforcement agencies and testify in court, as necessary.
- Direct collection, preparation, and handling of evidence and personal property of prisoners.
- Conduct raids and order detention of witnesses and suspects for questioning.
- Discipline staff for violation of department rules and regulations.
- Inspect facilities, supplies, vehicles, and equipment to ensure conformance to standards.
- Meet with civic, educational, and community groups to develop community programs and events, and to discuss law enforcement subjects.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.