GistGarden

Will AI replace Glaziers?

Most of the work in Glaziers still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~8%, and real-world use lower still.

The Human Moat Work that's hard for AI to cross — for now.

O*NET-SOC 47-2121

How your 21 core tasks split

14% within AI's reach
0 AI can do this now
3 AI speeds this up
18 Still on you
AI could do · GPT-4 study
8%
8-pt gap
AI actually does · 2026 report
0%

Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.

⚡ The short answer

Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~8%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.

Where this job sits among 738 jobs

Being automatedTicking (can, but unused)Relatively safeQuietly happeningYOU0%50%100%0%40%75% → How much AI could do (theory) → How much AI is actually used (late 2025)

Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.

Stableconfidence

The signals here line up

Theoretical reach (~8%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.

See all 21 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
AI can already do this0 of 21
  • None — AI cannot fully do any core task alone yet.
AI speeds this up3 of 21
  • Measure and mark outlines or patterns on glass to indicate cutting lines.
  • Read and interpret blueprints or specifications to determine size, shape, color, type, or thickness of glass, location of framing, installation procedures, or staging or scaffolding materials required.
  • Measure mirrors and dimensions of areas to be covered to determine work procedures.
Still on you18 of 21
  • Fabricate or install metal sashes or moldings for glass installation, using aluminum or steel framing.
  • Determine plumb of walls or ceilings, using plumb lines and levels.
  • Fasten glass panes into wood sashes or frames with clips, points, or moldings, adding weather seals or putty around pane edges to seal joints.
  • Prepare glass for cutting by resting it on rack edges or against cutting tables and brushing thin layer of oil along cutting lines or dipping cutting tools in oil.
  • Cut, fit, install, repair, or replace glass or glass substitutes, such as plastic or aluminum, in building interiors or exteriors or in furniture or other products.
  • Grind or polish glass, smoothing edges when necessary.
  • Set glass doors into frames and bolt metal hinges, handles, locks, or other hardware to attach doors to frames and walls.
  • Install pre-assembled metal or wood frameworks for windows or doors to be fitted with glass panels, using hand tools.
  • Drive trucks to installation sites and unload mirrors, glass equipment, or tools.
  • Move furniture to clear work sites and cover floors or furnishings with drop cloths.
  • Cut, assemble, fit, or attach metal-framed glass enclosures for showers, bathtubs, display cases, skylights, solariums, or other structures.
  • Load and arrange glass or mirrors onto delivery trucks, using suction cups or cranes to lift glass.
  • Pack spaces between moldings and glass with glazing compounds and trim excess material with glazing knives.
  • Cut and remove broken glass prior to installing replacement glass.
  • Score glass with cutters' wheels, breaking off excess glass by hand or with notched tools.
  • Secure mirrors in position, using mastic cement, putty, bolts, or screws.
  • Assemble, erect, or dismantle scaffolds, rigging, or hoisting equipment.
  • Cut and attach mounting strips, metal or wood moldings, rubber gaskets, or metal clips to surfaces in preparation for mirror installation.

My job is a Human Moat 😌

Turns out being human is still the hard part to copy.

Theoretical estimate · not a prediction · gistgarden.com

How we measured this — and how fresh it is

AI's theoretical reach data: 2023

From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.

Real-world AI use 2026 report

From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).

Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3

Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.

Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.

This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.