GistGarden

Will AI replace Model Makers, Wood?

Most of the work in Model Makers, Wood still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~15%, and real-world use lower still.

The Human Moat Work that's hard for AI to cross — for now.

O*NET-SOC 51-7031

How your 12 core tasks split

25% within AI's reach
1 AI can do this now
2 AI speeds this up
9 Still on you
AI could do · GPT-4 study
15%
15-pt gap
AI actually does · 2026 report
0%

Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.

⚡ The short answer

Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~15%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.

Where this job sits among 738 jobs

Being automatedTicking (can, but unused)Relatively safeQuietly happeningYOU0%50%100%0%40%75% → How much AI could do (theory) → How much AI is actually used (late 2025)

Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.

Stableconfidence

The signals here line up

Theoretical reach (~15%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.

See all 12 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
AI can already do this1 of 12
  • Maintain pattern records for reference.
AI speeds this up2 of 12
  • Read blueprints, drawings, or written specifications, and consult with designers to determine sizes and shapes of patterns and required machine setups.
  • Plan, lay out, and draw outlines of units, sectional patterns, or full-scale mock-ups of products.
Still on you9 of 12
  • Verify dimensions and contours of models during hand-forming processes, using templates and measuring devices.
  • Set up, operate, and adjust a variety of woodworking machines such as bandsaws and planers to cut and shape sections, parts, and patterns, according to specifications.
  • Fit, fasten, and assemble wood parts together to form patterns, models, or sections, using glue, nails, dowels, bolts, screws, and other fasteners.
  • Trim, smooth, and shape surfaces, and plane, shave, file, scrape, and sand models to attain specified shapes, using hand tools.
  • Select wooden stock, determine layouts, and mark layouts of parts on stock, using precision equipment such as scribers, squares, and protractors.
  • Construct wooden models, patterns, templates, full scale mock-ups, and molds for parts of products and production tools.
  • Mark identifying information on patterns, parts, and templates to indicate assembly methods and details.
  • Fabricate work aids such as scrapers or templates.
  • Build jigs that can be used as guides for assembling oversized or special types of box shooks.

My job is a Human Moat 😌

Turns out being human is still the hard part to copy.

Theoretical estimate · not a prediction · gistgarden.com

How we measured this — and how fresh it is

AI's theoretical reach data: 2023

From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.

Real-world AI use 2026 report

From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).

Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3

Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.

Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.

This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.