Will AI replace Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric?
Work in Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric sits in the in-between: AI reaches some of it (~43% in theory) but is only measured doing about 0% today — part human, part machine.
O*NET-SOC 29-1241
How your 16 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a moderate share of this job's tasks (~43%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~43%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 16 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- Document or evaluate patients' medical histories.
- Perform comprehensive examinations of the visual system to determine the nature or extent of ocular disorders.
- Diagnose or treat injuries, disorders, or diseases of the eye and eye structures including the cornea, sclera, conjunctiva, or eyelids.
- Develop or implement plans and procedures for ophthalmologic services.
- Prescribe or administer topical or systemic medications to treat ophthalmic conditions and to manage pain.
- Develop treatment plans based on patients' histories and goals, the nature and severity of disorders, and treatment risks and benefits.
- Educate patients about maintenance and promotion of healthy vision.
- Perform, order, or interpret the results of diagnostic or clinical tests.
- Provide ophthalmic consultation to other medical professionals.
- Refer patients for more specialized treatments when conditions exceed the experience, expertise, or scope of practice of practitioner.
- Collaborate with multidisciplinary teams of health professionals to provide optimal patient care.
- Prescribe corrective lenses such as glasses or contact lenses.
- Prescribe ophthalmologic treatments or therapies such as chemotherapy, cryotherapy, or low vision therapy.
- Provide or direct the provision of postoperative care.
- Perform ophthalmic surgeries such as cataract, glaucoma, refractive, corneal, vitro-retinal, eye muscle, or oculoplastic surgeries.
- Perform laser surgeries to alter, remove, reshape, or replace ocular tissue.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.