Will AI replace Sailors and Marine Oilers?
Most of the work in Sailors and Marine Oilers still leans on things AI struggles with — research rates its theoretical AI reach at only ~4%, and real-world use lower still.
O*NET-SOC 53-5011
How your 19 core tasks split
Top = what GPT-4 judged AI could speed up. Bottom = how much AI was actually used for these tasks (Anthropic's March 2026 report, usage from Aug & Nov 2025). The gap is the real story.
Back in 2023, GPT-4 judged AI could, in theory, assist with a relatively low share of this job's tasks (~4%). By late 2025, real-world AI use had reached about 0% of its task activity (still rare). The gap between that 2023 forecast and today is the real story.
Where this job sits among 738 jobs
Each dot is one of 738 U.S. jobs. Right = AI can do more of it. Up = AI is actually used more.
The signals here line up
Theoretical reach (~4%), real-world use (~0%) and the task-level picture mostly agree — so this read is more reliable than for jobs where the signals contradict each other. Even so, AI-risk estimates shift by model (a 2026 study saw the "high-risk" share swing 2.7%–51.5%), so treat these as directional, not destiny.
See all 19 tasks, ratedBased on real task-level AI scores — click to collapse
- None — AI cannot fully do any core task alone yet.
- Read pressure and temperature gauges or displays and record data in engineering logs.
- Tie barges together into tow units for tugboats to handle, inspecting barges periodically during voyages and disconnecting them when destinations are reached.
- Attach hoses and operate pumps to transfer substances to and from liquid cargo tanks.
- Handle lines to moor vessels to wharfs, to tie up vessels to other vessels, or to rig towing lines.
- Stand watch in ships' bows or bridge wings to look for obstructions in a ship's path or to locate navigational aids, such as buoys or lighthouses.
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.
- Examine machinery to verify specified pressures or lubricant flows.
- Maintain a ship's engines under the direction of the ship's engineering officers.
- Break out, rig, and stow cargo-handling gear, stationary rigging, or running gear.
- Lubricate machinery, equipment, or engine parts, such as gears, shafts, or bearings.
- Lower and man lifeboats when emergencies occur.
- Sweep, mop, and wash down decks to remove oil, dirt, and debris, using brooms, mops, brushes, and hoses.
- Splice and repair ropes, wire cables, or cordage, using marlinespikes, wire cutters, twine, and hand tools.
- Load or unload materials, vehicles, or passengers from vessels.
- Chip and clean rust spots on decks, superstructures, or sides of ships, using wire brushes and hand or air chipping machines.
- Provide engineers with assistance in repairing or adjusting machinery.
- Operate, maintain, or repair ship equipment, such as winches, cranes, derricks, or weapons system.
- Paint or varnish decks, superstructures, lifeboats, or sides of ships.
- Give directions to crew members engaged in cleaning wheelhouses or quarterdecks.
How we measured this — and how fresh it is
AI's theoretical reach data: 2023
From GPTs-are-GPTs (Eloundou et al.), where GPT-4 rated how much of each task an AI tool could meaningfully speed up. This is the most recent open, commercially-usable occupation-level potential dataset — it dates to 2023. Newer multi-model re-runs exist but swing wildly (one 2026 study saw "high-risk" jobs range 2.7%–51.5% by model) and aren't openly licensed, so we show the stable 2023 baseline and pair it with newer real-world data.
Real-world AI use 2026 report
From the Anthropic Economic Index, which observes how real Claude conversations map onto each occupation's tasks. Published in Anthropic's March 2026 labor-market report, based on usage measured in Aug & Nov 2025 (Sonnet 4 / 4.5).
Task list & ratings O*NET 30.3
Tasks come from O*NET 30.3. Each task's "AI can do / speeds up / still on you" tier uses the real task-level exposure scores from GPTs-are-GPTs (E1 / E2 / E0) — not a guess from keywords.
Sources: O*NET 30.3 (CC BY 4.0) · GPTs-are-GPTs (MIT, 2023) · Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY, Aug & Nov 2025). Page compiled June 2026. "O*NET" is a trademark of the U.S. Department of Labor.
This page is for general informational purposes only and is not career, financial, or employment advice. AI exposure reflects research estimates of task overlap, not predictions about any individual's job, employer, or future employment.